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Discovering personal probabilities when utility functions are unknown

Article Abstract:

Standard scoring rules demand knowledge of an expert's utility function. Basic reference lottery tickets can be employed to develop scoring rules which do not call for such information. Only two distinct values are possible for the final monetary reward when utility is 'linearized' by means of the basic reference lottery tickets. Utility is then a linear payoff function in terms of high reward probabilities. Expert assessments can therefore be gained even when their utility functions are not known or cannot be observed.

Research, Management research, Lotteries

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Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming

Article Abstract:

Long-range forecasts are often needed by corporations and public institutions. Scenario analysis assesses the likelihood of different scenarios and requires expert knowledge and beliefs. A goal programming technique is described. It quarantees feasibility and directional consistency. Since it is interactive, the assessment process is helped by the feedback information. Tables contain numerical results.

Statistics (Data), Forecasting, Modeling, Data modeling software, Planning Applications, Statistics, Program Development Techniques

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Encoding Subjective Probabilities: a Psychological and Psychometeric Review

Article Abstract:

Subjective probability encoding is similar to other forms of psychological measurement. Psychological measurement and scaling are discussed. Technical definitions of reliability and validity are given. A literature review of various encoding methods with respect to reliability and validity is conducted.

Psychology, Decision theory, Analytical Techniques, Measurement, Social Science

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