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Effort and Accuracy in Choice

Article Abstract:

Individuals often use several different strategies such as the expected value rule, conjunctive rule, and elimination-by-aspects, to make decisions. It has been hypothesized that strategy selection is, in part, a function of (1) the ability of a strategy to produce an accurate response and (2) the strategy's demand for mental resources or effort. We examine effort and accuracy and their role in strategy selection. Several strategies that may be used to make choices under risk are simulated using a production system framework. This framework allows the estimation of the effort required to use the strategy in a choice environment, while simultaneously measuring its accuracy relative to a normative model. A series of Monte-Carlo studies varied several aspects of the choice environments, including the complexity of the task and the presence or absence of dominated alternatives. These simulations identify strategies which approximate the accuracy of normative procedures while requiring substantially less effort. These results, however, are highly contingent upon characteristics of the task environment. The potential of production system models in understanding task effects in decisions is stressed. (Reprinted by Permission of Publisher.)

Management science, Problem solving, Production, Simulation, Accuracy, Decision Models, Decision Making, Heuristic Methods, Monte Carlo Methods

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Variety seeking, purchase timing , and the "lightning bolt" brand choice model

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to demonstrate how variety seeking consumer behavior can also be detected with reference to a reduced-form, discrete-choice framework of dynamic consumer brand-choice behavior called the 'lightning bolt' model. This method for integrating the impact of variety seeking behavior into the 'lightning bolt' model explicitly associates brand choice and purchase timing behavior through state dependence, which is an aspect of dynamic choice behavior. Results of the study indicate that the lightning bolt model is useful for isolating the different elements of dynamic brand choice behavior. The study also found that purchase timing behavior appears to be linked to brand choice behavior through the impact of state dependence.

Consumer Behavior, Research, Beliefs, opinions and attitudes, Brand choice, Consumer preferences, Consumers

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Risk Attitudes in the Telecommunications Industry

Article Abstract:

Risk attitudes of individuals in seeking employment with large or small firms are investigated. Managers of regulated and unregulated telecommunications firms are surveyed. No difference in attitudes was ascertained because of type of employer.

Analysis, Surveys, Industry, Industries, Attitude (Psychology)

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