Spending growth set to recover

Article Abstract:

UK consumer spending will affect economic recovery and in turn is affected by income, wealth and borrowing. Disposable income has been affected by high taxation and unemployment, though savings and loan associations will be giving many savers windfalls after ending mutual status. Personal borrowing has not been reduced as much as corporate borrowing, and consumers are wary of taking on new debt. Savings levels have increased since the end of the 1980s, and the housing market is unlikely to boost spending.

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UK consumer cycle: on the turn

Article Abstract:

UK consumer spending is likely to grow by 2.5% in 1995, rising to 3% in 1996, forecasts BZW. Real personal disposable incomes are likely to rise by 1996, and the savings ratio looks set to fall by 1% in 1995. Interest rates could change the picture by affecting consumer confidence, and changes in employment are also important. Economic growth looks set to boost real income from employment in 1996, helping to boost income, but also affecting corporate profits.

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Unrealistic expectations

Article Abstract:

UK consumer spending looks set to increase by 1%, according to Robert Fleming Securities. This is a more pessimistic forecast than a more general 2.5% forecast of growth in real terms. Borrowing help finance spending in 1994, when incomes were affected by higher taxes, low growth in wages, and a drop in house prices. New car sales have been weak, and a fall in consumer spending growth may already have begun, and could continue to be weak in 1996.

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