The presidential puzzle: political cycles and the stock market

Article Abstract:

The article examines the difference in returns under Republican and Democratic presidencies. Stock market excess return is lower under Republican presidents than under Democratic ones. Business-cycle variables do not explain the differences, and no election-date influences are observed; hence, the issue is still an economic puzzle.

Political aspects, United States economic conditions, Republican Party (United States), Democratic Party (United States), President of the United States

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What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?

Article Abstract:

A hypothetical unanticipated reduction in the Federal funds rate target was found to be linked to a broad stock index increase of approximately 1%. Implications regarding monetary policy and expected excess returns are discussed.

Methods, Economic aspects, Monetary policy, Stock price forecasting, Federal funds market (United States)

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Idiosyncratic risk matters!

Article Abstract:

The positive correlation between market returns and average stock variance is examined.

Science & research, Security and Commodity Services, Securities & Commodities Services, Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities, Venture Analysis, Research, Risk assessment, Measurement, Securities industry, Business enterprises

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