Forecasting turning points in countries' output growth rates: a response to Milton Friedman
Article Abstract:
Two University of Chicago researchers used versions of a simple autoregressive-leading indicator model and a Bayesian decision theoretic method to forecast the turning points for the yearly output growth rates of 18 industrialized countries for the period 1974-1986. Their method enabled them to correctly determine 70% of 158 turning point forecasts for the industrialized countries. Economist Milton Friedman urged the researchers to use an extended data set to verify their findings. The researchers have reported positive results using their method in forecasting 211 turning point episodes for the period 1974-1990.
Publication Name: Journal of Econometrics
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0304-4076
Year: 1999
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
The distributions of the J and Cox non-nested tests in regression models with weakly correlated regressors
Article Abstract:
A study was conducted on the J and Cox non-nested tests distribution using regression models that are weakly correlated. Results showed that a new J and Cox distribution was derived when near population orthogonality was introduced and that alternative tests yielded different variables that were asymptotically approached. Other evidence show that tests incorporating the J distribution give better size properties than in the case of the Cox distribution.
Publication Name: Journal of Econometrics
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0304-4076
Year: 1999
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
Conditional and structural error correction models: reply
Article Abstract:
Neil R. Ericsson's discussion of a study on conditional and structural error correction models cites the need to structurally model cointegrated systems. Moreover, Ericsson points out that the study's exclusion of other error correction models which can also be classified as structural shows its narrow concept of structural error correction models. However, closer study reveals that there is no basis to this criticism.
Publication Name: Journal of Econometrics
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0304-4076
Year: 1995
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
- Abstracts: Predicting turning points in the UK inflation cycle. Shoe-leather costs reconsidered. House prices, the supply of collateral and the enterprise economy
- Abstracts: On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries. Lessons from the Asian crisis
- Abstracts: Declining population and sustained economic growth: can they coexist? Information, marketing, and pricing in the U.S. antiulcer drug market
- Abstracts: Saving determinants in Colombia: 1925-1994. Domestic savings, public savings and expenditures on consumer durable goods in Argentina
- Abstracts: Fast track: is it in the genes? The promotion policy of a large Japanese firm. Shirking and the choice of technology: a theory of production inefficiency with an empirical application