A simple, globally aggregated, stochastic-simulation model
Article Abstract:
Gretchen C. Daily's and Raul R. Ehrlich's technical paper, 'An Exploratory Model of the Impact of Rapid Climate Change on the World Food Situation,' provides a model that simulates the effect of stochastic perturbations in food production on population size. The model calculates, in yearly increments, human population size; the production, consumption and storage of grain under different climatic scenarios; and the number of hunger-related deaths. Although the model has several limitations, such as accounting for regional heterogeneity only by including deaths caused by maldistribution, it nevertheless provides some predictive value. The model suggests that a billion people could die from starvation in the future, that small differences in the annual rates of population growth and agricultural production can have a large impact on global food security, that climate change contributes less to food shortages when population growth outpaces growth in agricultural production than when growth in each is equal, and that CO2 fertilization and reduced transpiration will enhance global agricultural productivity.
Publication Name: SIMULATION
Subject: Engineering and manufacturing industries
ISSN: 0037-5497
Year: 1992
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A simulation approach to finding the stochastic behaviors of a time-dependent attrition process
Article Abstract:
Today the force-on-force attrition models are widely used to evaluate tactics or appraise equipments. Because of modeling complexity and computational difficulty, most researches concentrate on deriving solutions to deterministic attrition models. Recently, some computational algorithms have been developed to study the stochastic behaviors of a combat model. However, the attrition rate of a combat could be affected by many factors to become a time-dependent function in reality. A simulation approach is proposed in this paper to explore the time-dependent dynamic behaviors of a combat. Different properties can be computed from the simulation results to gain a more clear insight and understanding. A numerical example is presented as well. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)
Publication Name: SIMULATION
Subject: Engineering and manufacturing industries
ISSN: 0037-5497
Year: 1991
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