Modeling the USA-USSR Arms Race
Article Abstract:
A continuous time simulation model of the arms expenditures and arms stockpiles of the Soviet Union (USSR) and the United States (US) from 1951 through 1978 is developed in this article. This model suggests that contemporary superpowers react primarily to comparisons between their weapons stockpiles and those of their perceived opponents, rather than to the military budgets of their perceived opponents. The parameters for this model - which is developed in a system of ordinary differential equations - have been estimated by coupling a nonlinear least squares minimization algorithm, NL2SOL, with the solution trajectories of the differential equation system. The predictions of the model are quite close to the actual data series, with standard errors of the estimates for each individual equation being quite small. In contrast to some public opinion and considerable scholarly research, the results provide strong confirmation for the proposition that there is a current arms race between the US and the USSR. The US and the USSR each try to achieve or maintain a lead over the other in the stock of weapons - both the conventional and strategic - which each posesses. Stability analysis of the systems of equations suggests that the system may require approximately 3,000 years to return to the steady state, once it had been pushed off the stability trajectories. (Reprinted by Permission of Publisher.)
Publication Name: SIMULATION
Subject: Engineering and manufacturing industries
ISSN: 0037-5497
Year: 1984
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Applications of Artificial Intelligence: REVEAL, an AI-Based Decision Support Modeling Tool
Article Abstract:
McDonnell Douglas' REVEAL is a flexible decision support modeling tool. It is available for mainframe computers running VM-CMS or VME, minicomputers running VMS or PRIMOS, and the IBM PC-XT under PC-DOS. REVEAL features separate but integrated decision support and knowledge engineering, easy access and modification of its knowledge engineering, easy access and modification of its knowledge bases, adept manipulation of numerical data and backward, forward, and bi-directional chaining control strategy options. Inference engines or control strategies are easily customized.
Publication Name: SIMULATION
Subject: Engineering and manufacturing industries
ISSN: 0037-5497
Year: 1985
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Crisis Modeling of the Criminal Justice System
Article Abstract:
A crisis triggered procedure is applied to analysis of the criminal justice system of the United States; in particular, the development of a 'crisis triggered' computer simulation model of the criminal justice system is reported. The model is then used to identify potential major crises that have occurred or are expected to occur in the criminal justice system, to simulate them, and to study alternative regimes or patterns of recovery that the system may undergo. (Reprinted by Permission of Publisher.)
Publication Name: SIMULATION
Subject: Engineering and manufacturing industries
ISSN: 0037-5497
Year: 1984
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