Development and the liberal peace: what does it take to be a trading state?
Article Abstract:
This article investigates the liberal idea that trade between two states reduces the likelihood of militarized conflict between them. Richard Rosecrance's argument that industrial-technological developments have made peaceful trading strategies more efficient today is examined in connection with the empirical literature on trade and conflict. Development affects the utility calculations of states: since the costs of seizing and holding a territory increase with increased development, and the relative utility of occupying the territory decreases, the chance that the expected utility of occupation will exceed the expected costs decreases with increased development. Likewise, since the utility of trade increases with increased development, then increased development also makes it more likely that the expected costs of breaking the trade bonds will exceed the gains to be expected from occupation. Consequently, the relationship between trade and conflict is contingent on the level of development. Using Cox regression, and introducing a new measure of interdependence based on a gravity model of trade, I demonstrate that there is a clear negative relationship between trade and conflict. However, this relationship is basically restricted to dyads consisting of two developed dyads. Development itself is strongly associated with peaceful behavior. The results also suggest that the democratic peace requires a minimum level of development to be efficient.
Publication Name: Journal of Peace Research
Subject: International relations
ISSN: 0022-3433
Year: 2000
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The impact of war on trade: an interrupted time-series study
Article Abstract:
The effect war has on international trade is examined, focusing on the use of time-series models to study the trade relationships between major power dyads and between non-major power dyads. Topics include previous research that questions whether war interrupts trade for non-major powers, and conclusions that war disrupts trade in both major and minor power climates.
Publication Name: Journal of Peace Research
Subject: International relations
ISSN: 0022-3433
Year: 2001
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On disruption of trade by war: a reply to Barbeiri and Levy
Article Abstract:
The authors respond to criticism of their theory that war impedes trade. Support for their theory is found in 17 of 19 long war dyads and in 21 out of 27 total dyads, which they believe demonstrates significant evidence that disrution in trade is caused by war.
Publication Name: Journal of Peace Research
Subject: International relations
ISSN: 0022-3433
Year: 2001
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