A simple time series test of endogenous vs. exogenous growth models: an application to the United States

Article Abstract:

An endogenous growth model is compared to an exogenous model using time series analysis to determine the effect of government policy changes to the growth rate of GNP per capita. Results indicate that for endogenous models, changes in fiscal policies lead to permanent changes in GNP. On the other hand, policy shifts in exogenous growth economies only show temporary changes in the GNP. Non-military equipment capital and non-military structural capital are the only factors that affect long-term GNP levels.

Economic development, Government spending policy

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Productivity across industries and countries: time series theory and evidence

Article Abstract:

Shifts in aggregate productivity levels in 14 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries are examined by applying time-series and cross-section analysis on 1970-1987 data. Results show the heterogenous movement of productivity in some industries. Non-manufacturing industries, such as services, play a major role in the convergence of aggregate productivity at the country level in all of the OECD countries tested.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Industrial productivity

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On the dynamic properties of asymmetric models of real GNP

Article Abstract:

An analysis of the studies on the asymmetries of real GNP reveals that these models are similar despite using different techniques to arrive at asymmetry. Considerations include skewness, kurtosis, serial correlation, level effects in mean, ARCH errors and level effects in variance. The study was inspired by the growing number of literature on the asymmetry of business cycles and aims to evaluate the statistical techniques being used.

Econometrics & Model Building, Analysis, Econometrics, Business models, Cycles

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