Assessing the historical accuracy of regional economic forecasts
Article Abstract:
A study represents an initial attempt to address the systematic evaluation of regional economic forecasts. The analysis focuses on 'ex ante' regional structural equation model forecasts for 19 metropolitan areas. Results show that dependency on macroeconomic forecasting model inputs has no significant effect in reducing accuracy compared with univariate extrapolative methodologies. On average, stochastic time series models do not yield more accurate regional economic predictions compared with structural models.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1996
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Regional econometric income forecast accuracy
Article Abstract:
Economic forecasts of a region are used in framing of policies and budgeting for a state and at local levels. The econometric prediction accuracy of such forecast for the US state of New Mexico and its three key areas Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe are examined by using the previous data and the findings.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 2005
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A forecasting procedure for nonlinear autoregressive time series models
Article Abstract:
The new procedure for forecasting nonlinear autoregressive time series models is proposed and its effectiveness when compared with existing models is explained.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 2005
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- Abstracts: Comparing the accuracy of density forecasts from competing models. Robust evaluation of fixed-event forecast rationality
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- Abstracts: Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD. Political maneuverings as sources of measurement errors in forecasts