Composite forecasts, non-stationarity and the role of survey information
Article Abstract:
The role of survey information on consumer confidence in helping predict fluctuations in economic activity is investigated, using composite predictors. The role of forecast combinations when the underlying processes are non-stationary is considered, and the role that survey information might play even when the survey data are stationary is also explored. It was found that any forecast, used as part of a composite predictor, must ideally be co-integrated with the outcome.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1993
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Impact of correlations for dynamic selection bias on forecasts of retention behavior
Article Abstract:
Corrections for dynamic selection bias on forecasting accuracy in a multi-period stay/leave model do not necessarily produce more accurate forecasts than uncorrected techniques. Differences in relative accuracy vary directly with selection bias and inversely with retention percentage.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 2007
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Evaluating probability forecasts in terms of refinement and strictly proper scoring rules
Article Abstract:
The importance of using probability forecasting in rating corporate bonds is discussed in terms of refinement and scoring rules.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 2006
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