Differential interpretation of information in inflation forecasts

Article Abstract:

The hypothesis that economic agents interpret information identically has been tested with Israeli inflation forecasts from 1980 to 1993. The Kanden-Pearson methodology is used in proving that the data shows a high degree of inconsistency with the Bayesian model of learning and identical likelihoods. The results agree with previous conclusions made by Kandel and Pearson. This finding suggests that differential interpretation should be included in economic models.

Forecasting, Economic aspects, Economic forecasting, Human information processing, Rational expectations (Economics), Business forecasting

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Monetary policy preferences of individual FOMC members: a content analysis of the memoranda of discussion

Article Abstract:

The use of data gathered from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting deliberations on individuals' financial policy preferences substantially allows better precision in appraising parameters of individual FOMC members' reaction duties. Information from the 1970 to 1976 period are utilized in appraising the parameters. A meticulous coding of the data should be indispensable in ensuing studies of FOMC decision making.

Public Finance Activities, Federal Open Market Committee, United States. Federal Open Market Committee

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The role of commodity prices in formulating monetary policy

Article Abstract:

Commodity prices contain economic information that could be useful in formulating monetary policy. Monetary policy based on responding to unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices could lower inflation and not effect real growth.

Methods, Prices and rates, Economic research, Commodities

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