Federal budget projections: a nonparametric assessment of bias and efficiency
Article Abstract:
Budget figures submitted by the President to Congress are statistically evaluated via a nonparametric scheme to test for unbiasedness and both internal and external forecast efficiencies. Empirical data show that the methodology can detect bias in the forecasts in terms of outlay as seen in the regression results. However, the nonparametric results yield less series that show the revenue side's bias. Still, the nonparametric methodology proves that Federal budget forecasts do not use available information to the maximum.
Publication Name: Review of Economics and Statistics
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0034-6535
Year: 1995
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Statistical inference for computable general equilibrium models, with application to a model of the Moroccan economy
Article Abstract:
The problem of measuring the uncertainty of computable general equilibrium (CGE)-type models associated with parameter uncertainty was investigated. Two techniques for developing confidence sets on model endogenous variables were utilized and the conditions under which these confidence sets assume the form of intervals were examined. Empirical results showed that all changes predicted by CGE-type model simulations were considerably different from zero and could be determined by tight confidence intervals.
Publication Name: Review of Economics and Statistics
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0034-6535
Year: 1998
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Exact nonparametric orthogonality and random walk tests
Article Abstract:
A study introduced nonparametric, t-test analogs that may be used in a particular type of feedback models. The nonparametric orthogonality test, which is based on sign and signed rank statistics, are applicable to Mankiw and Shapiro's rational expectations model and the random walk without drift model. The simulations studies showed the capabilities of the nonparametric tests. An application that evaluates the efficiency of interest rate expectation data is presented.
Publication Name: Review of Economics and Statistics
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0034-6535
Year: 1995
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