Forecasting of curves using a Kohonen classification

Article Abstract:

An approach called the K-method is proposed for the prediction of the complete half-hour electrical power curve of the next day for Electricite de France to meet consumption demand at any time and to regulate output relative to demand. It assumes that the forecasting problem can be divided into three subproblems, namely, the forecast of the mean, of the standard deviation and of the normalized profile. The predicted curve is generated by using standard linear or nonlinear techniques to forecast the mean value and the variance of the next day and the Kohonen algorithm which correctly classifies the intrinsic shapes or profiles.

Research, Usage, Discriminant analysis, Curves, Curves (Geometry)

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Highest-density forecast regions for nonlinear and non-formal time series models

Article Abstract:

Forecast accuracy is often summarized by using forecast regions consisting of an interval symmetric about the forecast mean. However, forecast regions consisting of symmetric intervals may not be appropriate in the presence of asymmetric and unimodal forecast densities, which is often seen in modern time series models. In such cases, highest-density forecast regions can be used. A graphical method depicting the results of highest-density forecast regions is presented.

Forecasts and trends, Time-series analysis, Time series analysis

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