Monetary policy, composite leading economic indicators and predicting the 2001 recession
Article Abstract:
The performance of the two methodologies used to predict the economic recession in 2001 is evaluated. Both the methods used composite leading economic indicators for forecasting the US economic downturn. The effect of monetary policies and political uncertainty on the CLI also affects the forecasts from these methodologies.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 2004
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Forecasting recessions using the yield curve
Article Abstract:
Asset prices have built in components of present yields plus future real output growth or recessions. The resultant yield curve can be utilized for predicting recessions. A model for predicting future recession probabilities based on yield curve for a given length of business cycle is presented.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 2005
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Nowcasting quarterly GDP growth in a monthly coincident indicator model
Article Abstract:
An extension of the Stock and Watson coincident indicator model, helpful in monitoring the current state of the economy and reducing delay in Grosss Domestic Product measurement, is discussed.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 2005
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