On the sign of the optimal combining weights under the error-variance minimia\zing criterion
Article Abstract:
An algebraic rule derived to determine the sign of the optimal combining weights is presented. By examining the strength and sign of correlations between forecasting errors, the sign of optimal combining weights is determined. With the algebraic rule however, there is no need to compare the correlations and variances of the individual forecasting errors thus saving considerable time and effort.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1992
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On scoring asymmetric periodic probability models of turning-point forecasts
Article Abstract:
The adoption of periodic hazard models in order to improve the forecasting performance of turning-point predictions is recommended. Several formal probability models are constructed and their prediction performance tallied. Results indicate that substantial gains can be generated by exploiting periodicities in turning-point probabilities for sequential forecasting rules.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1993
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