Perspectives on Forecasting Research in Accounting and Finance
Article Abstract:
Forecasting research directions in accounting and finance are featured. The commonality of forecasting research is dubious; most involves Box-Jenkins methodology and specified variables based on reported earnings. Eight research papers are considered. They adhere to three categories: univariate time-series modeling, multivariate time series modeling and expert forecasting comparison to statistical models. The multivariate transfer function method has been applied to the analysis of earnings. Research includes suggestions for policy change at the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). Allowances for inflation do not have great impact on the time series properties of quarterly earnings. Sales expectations models are featured. Two expected return models and two predictions of long term growth rate demonstrate superior accuracy.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1983
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
Sales Revenues: Time-Series Properties and Predictions
Article Abstract:
Forecasting sales revenue according to autoregressive integrated moving average methodology (ARIMA) is compared at the company and industry levels. Frequently, a parsimonious model was found to have high predictive accuracy. High predictive accuracy may also be a function of the industry. Eleven industrial classifications are developed. Metals were found to have the least predictive accuracy in ARIMA modeling. Tables of comparative data on diagnostic model quality are included. The application of Box-Jenkins procedures to sales series at various aggregation levels was an optimal form of diagnostic check for the majority of firms. Analysis of variance and Duncan's multiple range tests point to a statistically meaningful variation as to industry factors.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1983
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
A markup model for forecasting inflation for the Euro areas
Article Abstract:
A markup model that predicts inflation rates in the Euro area is proposed.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 2006
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
- Abstracts: How effective are neural networks at forecasting and prediction? A review and evaluation. Causal forces: structuring knowledge for time-series extrapolation
- Abstracts: Interactions of real GNP business cycles in a three-country time-series model. The use of canonical correlation analysis to identify the order of multivariate ARMA models: Simulation and application
- Abstracts: Performance of GARCH models in forecasting stock market volatility. Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: evidence from linear and non-linear models
- Abstracts: On the existence of Cournot-Nash equilibria in continuum games. A note on the core of voting games
- Abstracts: Modeling expert forecasting knowledge for incorporation into expert systems