Quarterly forecasts of the Italian business cycle by means of monthly economic indicators
Article Abstract:
Italian economists have long relied on the industrial production index as their main measure for economic activity. This is borne of an orientation that favors structural macroeconomic modeling over business cycle analysis. However, the availability of regular figures for prices, supply and demand, employment and other economic variables makes the latter method a viable and practical alternative. A business cycle model that predicts indicators data one period ahead of national accounts data is developed.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1995
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
Fixed versus time-varying transfer functions for modelling business cycles
Article Abstract:
Thetraditional transfer function approach is compared to a recursive estimation procedure that allows the model to change over time in order to pinpoint and estimate transfer functions models relating leading indicators to the Swedish index of industrial production. Results of the comparison show that the recursive method is useful. It was also found that estimates of the model parameters indeed change over time.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1993
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
Business cycle forecasting
Article Abstract:
Some of the methodological problems involved in business cycle forecasting are introduced. Business cycle forecasting is a crucial element of the short aswell as the medium-term economic planning process, which must often incorporatejudgments about future structural changes in economic systems. Some remarks on structural variability aspects relative to business forecasting are provided.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1993
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
- Abstracts: Predicting turning points in business cycles by detection of slope changes in the leading composite index. Estimation and forecasting of long-memory processes with missing values
- Abstracts: Analysis of the US business cycle with a Vector-Markov-switching model. Misspecified prediction for time series
- Abstracts: Univariate forecasting comparisons: the case of the Spanish automobile industry. Bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations as non-linearity tests and tools for exchange rate forecasting
- Abstracts: The effect of public capital in state-level production functions reconsidered. Costs and factor substitution in the provision of local fire services
- Abstracts: Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: the relative performance of judgemntally revised versus non-revised forecasts