Thinking about the future: a cognitive perspective
Article Abstract:
Concepts from cognitive science are applied to subjective forecasting, specifically for a strategic planning approach. These include production systems, network representations, causal maps and analyses of argumentation. Each are evaluated after being implemented into the three-pronged conceptual structure of the knowledge base, the problem representation and the inference process linking them. It is concluded that merging cognitive science and strategic management can be improved by the convertion of strategic thought processes into representations which are more objective, concrete and easily communicated.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1993
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A predicting system based on combining an adaptive predictor and a knowledgebase as applied to a blast furnace
Article Abstract:
A system for predicting the silicon content in pig iron for a blast furnace combines an adaptive predictor with a knowledge base. Off-line simulation and on-line experiments show that the system's prediction accuracy is superior to that of an adaptive predictor alone or of an experienced operator, whether under stationary or nonstationary conditions. This indicates that improvement of control will follow, especially given that the system can also function as an operator guide.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1993
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Forecast combining with neural networks
Article Abstract:
Artificial neural networks (ANN) are used to combine the time series forecasts of stock market volatility from Canada, Japan, the UK and the US. Results show that ANN combined forecasts generally perform better than forecasts from different traditional combining methods when handling the international stock market data used. No 'a priori' guarantee that ANNs would dominate out of sample can be established, particularly in cases where ANNs overfit the in-sample data.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1996
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