The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight
Article Abstract:
German 1993 and Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis were used to answer questions related to the foresight exercises being established on the basis of top-expert assessments or on the assessments of a less specialized expert and the suitability of the method of self-rating of experts as they displayed a high degree of optimism. The results of the test indicated that the panel should consist of experts from different fields, having different grades, knowledge and affiliation while performing foresight exercises.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 2004
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
Foresight as a survival characteristic: when (if ever) does the long view pay?
Article Abstract:
The basic discounting strategy used in the cost-benefit analyses of long-range research and development and capital investment projects can result in very poor social decisions. Time preference cannot be assumed to be practically equivalent to a compound interest function. A more general approach is suggested and sample applications in different areas such as energy policy and environmental protection are presented.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1996
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
Evaluation of national foresight activities: assessing rationale, process and impact
Article Abstract:
A study examining national foresight activities in various situations using the examples of foresight programs of United Kingdom, Germany and Hungary is presented.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 2006
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
- Abstracts: Employment relations in Norway: some dimensions and correlates. Language and power: an empirical analysis of linguistic strategies used in superior-subordinate communication
- Abstracts: Short-termism and underinvestment: the influence of financial systems. Testing a flow model of capital flight in five European countries
- Abstracts: The effect of military service on educational, occupational, and income attainment. Does parents' economic, cultural and social capital explain the social class effect on educational attainment in the Scandinavian mobility regime?