Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Article Abstract:

It is possible to use a fully coupled global ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to make seasonal forecasts of the climate system with a lead time of up to six months. With a fully coupled one-stage approach, the full set of initial conditions can influence the evolution of the coupled system. Furthermore, many different interactions between ocean and atmosphere are represented during the forecast. Dynamical methods seem to offer considerable potential for making seasonal forecasts.

Models, Weather forecasting

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Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index

Article Abstract:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) provides a quantitative measurement of the phase of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation cycle and future rainfall. The probabilistic rainfall forecasting system identifies the lag-relationship between the values of SOI. The system offers rainfall probability distributions three to six months in advance for regions worldwide. The forecasting system allows better management of world agricultural production and reduces risks for farmers.

Analysis, Forecasts and trends, El Nino, El Nino Current, Rain and rainfall, Rain, Southern oscillation

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Control of atmospheric export of dust from North Africa by the North Atlantic Oscillation

Article Abstract:

A satellite survey of dust transport from North Africa implicates the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling the interannual variability of dust loadings. The North Atlantic Oscillation is a pressure pattern that has kept Europe warm and parts of the North Atlantic cold in many winters since 1982. The survey shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation may also affect the transport of some aerosol pollutants.

Research, Environmental aspects, Ocean-atmosphere interaction, Air pollution, Meteorological research, Dust, Desert research

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