Implications of salesforce productivity heterogeneity and demotivation: a Navy recruiter case study

Article Abstract:

A study of the implications of Navy recruiter tenure on salesforce productivity at the individual recruiter level, with data from the 1979-1980 Navy Enlistment Marketing Experiment conducted by the Wharton Applied Research Center, focuses on the significance of salesperson experience. Findings disclosed: that toward the end of duty, recruiters experience a low productivity demotivational period; and that recruiter productivity after control for tenure revealed heterogeneity. The study data are examined, and the tenure effects analysis is described. Three stochastic models are developed to investigate heterogeneity of recruiter productivity and to anticipate future performance. Implications for industrial salesforce research are discussed.

Case studies, Statistics, Labor productivity, Sales personnel, Salespeople, United States. Navy, Recruiting and enlistment

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Information distortion in a supply chain: the bullwhip effect

Article Abstract:

The bullwhip effect observed in supply chain information flow is investigated. The bullwhip effect is a phenomenon where orders to the supplier tend to have a larger variance compared with sales to the buyer, with the distortion traveling upstream in an amplified form. Four sources of the phenomenon are analyzed, namely, demand signal processing, rationing game, order batching and price variations. Results show that sales data provided in the form of orders received from the downstream entity should be regarded with caution. The bullwhip effect can be dampened by using sell-through data and information on inventory status at downstream nodes. Such an approach can also improve channel coordination.

Economics, Production management, Inventory control, Information theory, Supply-side economics, Information theory in economics

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Forecasting with a repeat purchase diffusion model

Article Abstract:

A sales forecasting methodology is presented which predicts the sales of a drug from pre-sales marketing efforts and from updates taken from only a few periods of actual sales statistics. Parameters of the repeat purchase diffusion model are derived from physicians' perceptions of the drugs' frequency of use, indications, and effectiveness. The model is validated by testing on 19 drugs by comparing forecasts without sales data to seven periods of sales data.

Marketing research, Market research, Consumer behavior, Sales forecasting

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