Prelaunch forecasting of new automobiles

Article Abstract:

A prelaunch model and measurement system is proposed which can be used by the automobile industry to improve marketing efforts for promoting new cars. The system predicts the life-cycle of a new automobile prior to market introduction and establishes enhanced techniques for marketing. The model was created to predict and monitor important customer actions in response to marketing activities. The model specifically addresses issues, such as magazine reviews, dealer visits, and active searches by consumers, which are important to comprehending how individuals respond to durable goods marketing. Results achieved when testing model predictions with real sales figures indicate that the model's predictive power is reasonably accurate when a strategy that is used in the model parallels an actual planned strategy.

Analysis, Management, Automobiles

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Market share rewards to pioneering brands: an empirical analysis and strategic implications

Article Abstract:

The order of entry of a brand name product into a consumer product category is shown by empirical analysis to be inversely related to its market share. A model of market share is used as a log linear function of order of entry, time between entries, advertising, and the effectiveness of positioning. A regression analysis on an initial sample of 82 brand name products across 24 categories shows that entry coefficients, and advertising and positioning variables are significant. The results are verified by predictions on 47 brands not analyzed previously. Also discussed are managerial implications for pioneering brands and later entrants.

Usage, Mathematical models, Brand name products, Brand names, New products, Product introduction, Market share

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Modeling multiattribute utility, risk, and belief dynamics for new consumer durable brand choice

Article Abstract:

A brand choice model for use in the pre-introduction phase of a new durable consumer item is proposed. The critical phenomena of multiattribute preference, risk and dynamics are integrated with an expected utility framework at the individual level. Established theoretical constructs in utility, discrete choice theory, and Bayesian decision analysis form the basis of the integration. Estimation procedures using the model are presented, and an application of the model is described.

Research, Management science, Brand choice

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