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Properties of standardized time series weighted area variance estimators

Article Abstract:

A process is described to estimate the variance of the sample means from an on-going-time stationary stochastic procedure. The process extends results achieved in previous research by utilizing the theory of standardized time series to analyze weighted generalizations of an area variance estimator suggested by past research. Research results reveal that a simple expression is developed for the bias of the weighted area variance estimator, and weights are given which generate variance estimators with an asymptotic bias that is lower than other estimators. The estimators are then used to develop asymptotically valid confidence interval estimators for the mean of a stationary stochastic procedure. Research results indicate that the new confidence interval estimators generate coverages which closely parallel the nominal value.

Author: Goldsman, David, Schruben, Lee, Meketon, Marc
Publisher: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
Publication Name: Management Science
Subject: Business, general
ISSN: 0025-1909
Year: 1990
Simulation methods, Simulation, Stochastic processes, Confidence intervals

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Asymptotic properties of some confidence interval estimators for simulation output

Article Abstract:

Recent papers have suggested simulating output analysis by standardizing the output time series. Four interval estimators based upon this new approach are tested against the classic confidence estimator. The new estimators are shown to have asymptotic properties that dominate the classic estimator when information derives from either independent simulation replications or batched observations of a single simulation run.

Author: Goldsman, David, Schruben, Lee
Publisher: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
Publication Name: Management Science
Subject: Business, general
ISSN: 0025-1909
Year: 1984
Methods, Management research

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New confidence interval estimators using standardized time series

Article Abstract:

Novel asymptotically valid confidence interval estimators (CIE's) are presented for the underlying mean of a stationary simulation procedure. It is demonstrated that weighted CIE's have asymptotic expected lengths and variances which parallel the length as the area CIE. However, in a limited sample environment, the new CIE's demonstrate performance attributes which do not parallel those of the area CIE.

Author: Goldsman, David, Schruben, Lee
Publisher: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
Publication Name: Management Science
Subject: Business, general
ISSN: 0025-1909
Year: 1990
Operations research, Management science, Analysis

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Subjects list: Research, Time-series analysis, Time series analysis
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