Thinking Big

Article Abstract:

An interview with three well-known stock analysts - Barton Biggs of Morgan Stanley, Walter Mintz of Cumberland Associates, and Anthony Cilluffo of Culliffo Associates - is presented. Biggs believes the big-capitalized stocks are fairly priced, but thinks speculative, high-growth stocks are overpriced and due for a fall. Cilluffo believes the strength of the dollar to be the issue of paramount importance. Mintz thinks high interest rates have been caused by investor fears of being crowded out of the market. Biggs sees himself as a deflationist, while Cilluffo thinks of inflation as painful but necessary. Cilluffo believes big-name traditional stocks are bound to become popular again with investors. Cilluffo thinks government planners are purposely fine-tuning the economy because 1984 will be an election year, and Mintz says the government may also resort to new kinds of taxes.

Stock-exchange, Stock exchanges, Securities industry

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End of Drought

Article Abstract:

An interview with agricultural expert Larry Hollis of rural broker Robert Baird is presented. Hollis believes farm equipment sales will jump dramatically in 1984. He also thinks the government's payment-in-kind (PIK) programs will encourage farmers to buy machinery because of its tax advantages. The summer drought of 1983 was very harmful to crops, particularly corn, and Hollis expects prices to soar. He particularly expects equipment maker Deere & Co. to enjoy increased sales.

Agriculture, Agricultural equipment, Securities, Farm equipment

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Biding Cycles

Article Abstract:

An interview with Paul Montgomery, market analyst with Legg Mason Wood Walker, is presented. Montgomery has been able to estimate bond market trends very accurately by analyzing psychological factors. Specifically, he looks for cycles in price and volume resulting from changes in mass psychology. However, his results are mostly dependent on conventional analysis. Montgomery thinks a rally in the bond market but not in the stock market is likely.

Evaluation, Investment advisers, Bonds, Bonds (Securities)

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