Brinkmanship

Article Abstract:

United Kingdom interest rates are decided by the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, which uses forecasts of gross domestic product (GDP) in making its calculations. The Bank calculates GDP in a different way from the Treasury, so it is not easy to compare their forecasts, but the Treasury forecasts slightly higher growth for 2000. The Bank's forecasts are made assuming no change in interest rates, whereas the Treasury forecasts that they will drop. The bank is unlikely to argue for a drop in interest rates, and it may be too late to cut rates to avoid a recession in 1999.

United Kingdom, Economic policy, Monetary policy

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Uncertain prospects

Article Abstract:

Stock markets in emerging economies are recovering, and bond yields are falling. There is a possibility that views of emerging economies may have become too optimistic in 1999, as they were too pessimistic in 1998. Developing countries will see slower growth in 1999 than in 1998, and recession looks set to deepen in Latin America, though forecasts for east Asia have been revised upwards. Longer term prospects for these economies are good, especially if economic reforms can be carried out.

Economic aspects, Developing countries

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Waiting for growth

Article Abstract:

Trends in the world economy, and forecasts for economic growth are examined in detail.

Analysis, Economic forecasting

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