Comparison of election predictions, voter certainty and candidate choice on political polls

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to examine the effectiveness of probability scales in political polls and to compare their predictions against forced-choice scales. The study extended the research carried out by J.A. Hoek and P.J. Gendall in 1993 using a similar 0-10 scale. Results confirmed the appropriateness of using subjective probability scales in telephone polling activities. Findings also indicated that the 0-10 scale were user friendly and accommodated adjustments related to respondents' probability scores.

Elections, Research, Probabilities, Probability theory, Election forecasting

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Messages from the spiral of silence: developing more accurate market information in a more uncertain political climate

Article Abstract:

The failure of the polls to predict the result of recent political elections is the consequence of their inability to adjust for the effect of the so-called 'spiral of silence.' In this light, politicians should take note of messages from the spiral of silence to be able to obtain meaningful interpretations from polls in an uncertain political climate.

Surveys

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