Inventory excesses threaten recession

Article Abstract:

The economic outlook for 1st qtr 1988 through 4th qtr 1989 is one of sporadic economic growth without a likely recession. Consumer withdrawal after the stock market crash of Oct 1987 left wholesalers and retailers with large inventories of housing and consumer goods. Modest growth is expected in consumer spending, while manufacturing should be stimulated by expected growth in world trade of three percent in 1988 and four percent in 1989. The economy should restrain inflationary pressures, but inflation in consumer prices is increasing gradually, with projected rates from 3.7% in 1988 to 4.8% in 1989. Economic sluggishness provides little direction for investment activities and is more favorable for traders than long-term investors.

Economic development, Inflation (Finance), United States economic conditions, Inflation (Economics)

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Bumpy landing in store for economy

Article Abstract:

The economy currently does not show any of the signs of a recession but tightening labor markets and increased short term interest burdens are expected to produce a recession in late 1990. The increased strength of the dollar has improved the competitiveness of foreign products so domestic labor market increases have not yet been passed on to consumers. The Federal Reserve is expected to increase short-term interest rates to combat the inflation that will arise from increased labor costs. Additionally, the increased interest rates will probably lead to a mild recession in late 1990. Overall, real economic output is expected to rise 3.0% in 1989, and then slow to 1.3% in 1990.

Agricultural policy, Balance of trade, Federal Reserve banks, Labor supply, Labor force

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Don Ratajczak - economic forecast

Article Abstract:

A decline in construction and in public utilities investment means that, by 1987, the economy will slow down. Several other indicators are analyzed. The results of analysis indicate that 1987 will be a slow growth year, with a possibility of recession that cannot be ignored.

Economics, Business forecasting

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