Climate change thresholds and guardrails for emissions

Article Abstract:

Policy analysts have based most of their decisions regarding the formulation of climatic policy on two basic approaches, namely, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and tolerable windows approach (TWA). The CBA method evaluates the costs of abatement and impacts of climatic change, whereas the TWA method involves the identification of thresholds in climate change that may lead to intolerable impacts. However, each approach has its own faults. The CBA assumes that climate change will be smooth and marginal, with no anticipation for a worst-case scenario. The TWA assumes that impact thresholds of climate changes can be defined and thus be manageable.

Editorial, Models, Environmental policy, Global temperature changes

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Late 20th century climatic change over the northern hemisphere and its consequences for numerical weather prediction

Article Abstract:

Anthropogenic aerosols have recently been found to have a significant effect on climate. A distinct warming has been observed over the majority of the southern hemisphere and the tropics and a relative cooling over the northern hemisphere's middle and high latitudes. Such a pattern affects the dynamics of weather systems and the numerical prediction of weather, particularly over the northern hemisphere. Radiative forcings may have to be included to further improve numerical weather prediction models.

Natural history, Weather forecasting, Northern Hemisphere

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The problem of paleo-analogs

Article Abstract:

The application of climate reconstructions that are based on paleoclimate data to predict future warming may produce erroneous results because such reconstructions would not be applicable to a very rapid future climate change. Thus, it would be safer to concentrate on processes occurring during past time periods and how they might be used to constrain future projections.

Paleoclimatology

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