A Markov switching model for the Hungarian price stabilization plan of 1924

Article Abstract:

The use of the linear ar(1) model and the Markov ar(1) model for characterizing an economic time-series was evaluated. The comparison, which was done using data from the Hungarian hyperinflation and economic stabilization periods, employed in-sample forecasting techniques such as root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error tests as well as bootstrapping. Both revealed the superiority of the Markov switching model over the linear ar(1) model.

Research, Evaluation, Mathematical models, Markov processes, Economic stabilization, Goodness-of-fit tests

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Differential information and optimal feedback policy in new classical macroeconomic models

Article Abstract:

An analysis of differential information and optimal feedback policy innew classical macroeconomic models is presented. The analysis focuses on feedback optimality in the absence of market clearing constraints. It is shown that such conditions are robust. Monetary authorities do not have total controlover information while all market agents have access to monetary policies and actions.

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An empirical open-economy macro model with credit

Article Abstract:

An analysis of an empirical open-economy macro model is presented. The analysis assumes credit variables for the market and explicit movement effects on the exchange rate system. It isshown that credit variation exhibit as much importance as other factors in determining output, price and interest rate movements. In addition, exchange rate changes influence credit movements.

Economic aspects, Credit

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