Contagion and trade: why are currency crises regional?

Article Abstract:

The theory that international trade is a vital channel through which currency crises can spread across a geographic region is examined by analyzing economic data from crises which occurred in 1971, 1973, 1992, 1994 and 1997. The theory basically posits that the contagions, such as currency crises, is dispersed because of trade relations. Countries in a region are subjected to speculative attacks by their neighbors who are their trading partners because of their closeness. There was little evidence of any link between the occurrence of speculative attacks and macroeconomic and financial influences.

International economic relations, International trade, Regional economics, Foreign exchange market

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An empirical evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of tariffs

Article Abstract:

Tariffs were found not to have a significant impact on macroeconomic variables such as bilateral trade flows, real exchange rates, trade balance and economic activity level. This result was verified analyzing five sets of lateral trade data. The findings were derived from the income expenditure approach, the monetary approach and the intertemporal approach. Tariffs were also found to be distributional in nature and thus may have a negative impact on international trade.

Tariffs

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Domestic macroeconomic news and foreign interest rates

Article Abstract:

The effects of US and UK macroeconomic news about the prices of futures contracts on the short- and long-term US, UK, German and Japanese government bonds are studied. Results show that macroeconomic news releases from the US influence Japanese, German and British interest rates while UK news had no significant impact. It is also shown that US Consumer Price Index news shocks reflect world-wide shocks.

Government securities

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