Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts

Article Abstract:

A set of one-year forecasts for long-term interest rates are tested for directional accuracy. A chi-square goodness-of fit test reveals that there is a statistically significant difference between the abilities of business economics and academic economists, to predict correctly the direction of change in long-term interest rates.

Forecasts, trends, outlooks, Interest Rates, Models, Forecasts and trends, Econometrics, Market trend/market analysis

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Evaluating FOMC forecasts

Article Abstract:

The accuracy of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) forecasts relative to private sector forecast is evaluated. The results revealed that FOMC outputs are more accurate than the private sector forecasts and the native model.

United States. Federal Reserve Board, Monetary policy, Powers and duties

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Accurace, usefulness and the evaluation of analysts' forecasts

Article Abstract:

The authors finds that forecast immediacy affects both the accuracy and usefulness of forecasts, and the immediacy should be taken in account when forecasting.

Forecasting

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