Forecasting euro area inflation: does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?

Article Abstract:

Price stability is the primary objective of the European Central Banks. In the context of the performance of different forecasting strategies for euro area inflation, a simulated out-of-sample forecast experiment is developed to compare the accuracy of methods of forecasting aggregate Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) directly than aggregating forecasts for HICP subcomponents.

Europe, Evaluation, Consumer price indexes

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Are there any reliable leading indicators for US inflation and GDP growth?

Article Abstract:

The efficacy of automated model selection, adoption of a factor model, and adoption of single-indicator-based forecast pooling, for gleaning information useful for forecasting from a large data. The study is based on data relating to inflation and GDP growth in United States.

United States, Analysis, Gross domestic product, Growth, Economic indicators, Company growth, Inflation (Economics)

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