Income persistence and macro-policy feedbacks in the US

Article Abstract:

The accuracy of estimates of US annual real per capita aggregate income is examined using indices of disequilibrium and macro-policy feedbacks. The policy variables used include changes in short-term interest rates and the ratio of government surplus to GDP. Disequilibrium indices include unemployment rates and trade deficit ratios. Results indicate that the three-year accuracy of the US income forecasting equation can be improved with a small number of ancillary equations.

Research, Economic policy, Income forecasting

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The expectations hypothesis of the term structure and time-varying risk premia: a panel data approach

Article Abstract:

A formula is developed to examine the hypothesis that yield spread forecasts long yield changes. The hypothesis is rejected. The bias is reduced by substituting panel data for estimated coefficients of regression, resulting in less bias.

United Kingdom, Models, Risk assessment, Investments, Economic forecasting

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