Predicting turning points in the UK inflation cycle

Article Abstract:

Leading inflation indicators in the UK were identified based on an analysis of complete inflation cycles during the period 1958-93. These include Mo, import unit values and unemployment, which were classified as shorter leading indicators; and vacancies, retail sales volume, world commodity prices and the industrial production index, which were categorized as longer leading indicators. Further analysis revealed these indicators to be quite effective in predicting inflation peaks and troughs, with very few erroneous signals.

Prediction theory

---

House prices, the supply of collateral and the enterprise economy

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted on the influence of the supply of collateral on the formation of firms in the UK. The impact of collaterals on the size of the small business sector is also examined. Results indicate that an increase in the value of unreleased net housing equity by 10% increases VAT registrations by 5%. There seems to be a large number of entrepreneurial talent which are untapped due to insufficient collateral.

Analysis, Finance, Small business, Entrepreneurship

---

Shoe-leather costs reconsidered

Article Abstract:

The shoe-leather costs of inflation was reassessed using United Kingdom's economic data from 1870 to 1994. The validity of Lucas' proposition regarding log specification of interest rates was established. It supports the use of log specification in illustrating money demand dynamics. A semilog interest rate specification that suggests smaller welfare gain estimates was also obtained.

Economics, Research and Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities, Models, Economic research, Interest rates

Similar abstracts:

• Abstracts: Asymmetric business cycle turning points. Asymmetric business cycles: theory and time-series evidence
• Abstracts: Price rigidities, inventories, and growth fluctuations. Sales by multi-product retailers. Optimal price promotion in the presence of asymmetric reference-price effects
• Abstracts: Sugar confectionery. Chocolate confectionery
• Abstracts: A general extension theorem for binary relations. Arrow's theorem in public good environments with convex technologies
• Abstracts: Is Bayesian rationality compatible with strategic rationality? Rationality, learning and social norms

This website is not affiliated with document authors or copyright owners. This page is provided for informational purposes only. Unintentional errors are possible.