Sources of U.S. macroeconomic fluctuations: 1973-1989

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to analyze economic variables describing the US economy. The study assumes that the US economy is conditioned by oil, non-oil aggregate supply, fiscal, monetary, aggregate demand and exchange rate innovations. These six economic shocks are measured for effects on fluctuations from 1973-1989. Results show that supply-side shocks affect output fluctuations while demand-side shocks develop only transitory influence on output.

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The size of the random walk in macroeconomic time series

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to evaluate the incorporation of a small random walk in macroeconomic time series in the US. A nonparametric approach is applied to the study. Results show that random walk size for most macroeconomic time series is not as small as previous research has indicated for the US per capita GNP variable. In addition, large random walks imply the need for a more precise method for estimating its size.

Economic aspects, Time-series analysis, Time series analysis

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Further evidence on the stabilization of postwar economic fluctuations

Article Abstract:

The theory of postwar duration stabilization was supported by NBER research that defined prewar and postwar business cycles. However, the NBER method showed inconsistent dating methods that negated the reliability of its forecasts. A business cycle chronology featuring historically consistent prewar and postwar turning points showed weak evidence of postwar duration stabilization in the period.

20th century AD, Business cycles, United States history, Economic stabilization, United States history, 1945-

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