The econometrics of macroeconomic forecasting

Article Abstract:

An analysis of econometric tools for macroeconomic forecasting that compensates for input variations reveals that there is no single model that ensures immunity from predictive failure. The study also supports the adoption of a more robust forecasting approach instead of intercept corrections. Finally, error-correction is a possible field of further study since it has better potential applications in macroeconomic forecasting than co-integration models.

Economics, Research and Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities, Econometrics & Model Building, Methods, Analysis, Econometrics, Economic forecasting, Macroeconomics, Business models

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Effects of judges' forecasting on their later combination of forecasts for the same outcomes

Article Abstract:

The earlier made forecasts by the judges influence the outcome of the forecasts of the knowledgeable advisors after required analysis. So the study suggest that it is better to refrain from making own forecasts when knowledgeable advisors are available to make forecasts.

Psychological aspects, Study and teaching, Forecasting

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Non-parametric direct multi-step estimation for forecasting economic processes

Article Abstract:

Analysis of asymptotic and finite-sample properties of direct multi-step estimation (DMS) for forecasting the economic processes at different horizons is described. DMS is presented as a more accurate forecasting technique than indirect multi-step estimation (IMS).

Models, Usage, Estimation theory, Economic systems

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