The sources of forecast errors: experimental evidence

Article Abstract:

Forecast error in the rational expectations hypothesis is due to passage of time alone. Analysis indicates that contrary to the hypothesis, forecasts are endogenous, forecast errors and forecasts are correlated amd only riskless forecasts are unbiased. Errors committed are largely unsystematic and unbiased and may have been caused by the mis-specification or mismanagement of data. Persistent rejection of theories despite the proper adjustment of data suggests an inherent error in the model itself.

Evaluation, Forecasting, Error analysis (Mathematics), Rational expectations (Economics), Error analysis

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Why equilibrium? A note on the noncooperative equilibria of some matrix games

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted on the non-cooperative equilibria of examples of matrix games. These raise questions regarding the virtue of the non-cooperative equilibria as a solution concept. It is demonstrated that an optimum response cycle may payoff dominate the particular non-cooperative equilibrium. This examination is an extension of the 3 x 3 matrix game presented by Lloyd Shapley.

Analysis, Matrix mechanics

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Anticipatory learning in two-person games: some experimental results

Article Abstract:

An experiment designed to test Selten's stability predictions is presented.

Adjustment (Psychology), Expectation (Psychology), Expectations, Approximation theory, Approximation

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