Effect of exchange rate risk on intra-EC trade

Article Abstract:

A survey of several European economies was undertaken to find out whether uncertainty arising from flexible exchange rates negatively affects trade between countries of the EC. While no definitive conclusion can be given on negative effects, the positive effect of fixed exchange rates can be demonstrated. This beneficial effect on trade occurred between the years 1970-1990 when risk associated with exchange rates was minimized through the adoption of fixed rates.

Economic aspects, Prices and rates, Economic policy, Foreign exchange, Foreign exchange rates, International trade, European Union

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Interdependence between the Netherlands and Germany: forecasting with VAR models

Article Abstract:

An analysis of the influence of the German economy on the Dutch economy, using a new vector auto regressive (VAR) model was presented. The VAR model was subjected to several restrictions to eliminate the overparameterization of conventional VAR models. The new model was able to makeforecasts on the interdependence of the German and Dutch economies with less errors and inconsistencies.

Analysis, Netherlands, Germany, International economic relations, German foreign relations, Dutch foreign relations

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