A new analytic technique for the study of deterrence, escalation control, and war termination

Article Abstract:

The paper describes work of the RAND Strategy Assessment Center on knowledge-based models of strategic decisionmaking. The models are more realistic than those focusing exclusively on quantitative calculations and they can provide a mechanism for focusing debate on policy issues where qualitative and quantitative measures must be used conjunctively. Debating the merits of formal rule-based models encourages the participants to converge on the relative value of alternative variables, details of context, and definitions. (Reprinted with permission of the publisher.)

Artificial intelligence, Knowledge-based systems, Game theory, Strategic Planning, Insurance Policy Handling, Military, Knowledge-Based System, Decision Making, Rule-Based System, technical

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Credibility of Models (Panel Discussion)

Article Abstract:

The cost of computer simulation and the increasing complexity of models necessitate model credibility and some means of verifying such credibility. Communication between model developers, model users, and those impacted by the model is essential. Two quantitative methods of validating models are sensitivity analysis and error analysis. Validation may be best when represented as degree of validation rather than a valid-invalid decision.

Standard, Standardization, Statistics (Data), Error analysis (Mathematics), Modeling, Data modeling software, Statistics, Error Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Validation, Terminology, Error Propagation

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