Back-projection and sensitivity analysis of the HIV-AIDS epidemic in the Caribbean

Article Abstract:

The prevalence of HIV infection appears to be less than 1% but steadily increasing in the Caribbean nations, though this estimate may be lower than the actual prevalence because of assumptions made in calculating it. Incidence is the rate at which new cases of a disease develop over time and prevalence is the percentage of the population that has a disease. Researchers compared estimated incidences of HIV infection using different statistical models. All of the statistical models produced data that matched fairly well with data from the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre. If it is assumed that 80% of actual HIV cases are not reported, then the incidence estimate would increase by approximately 25%. Similarly, the incidence estimate would increase by about 7% with an adjustment for delay in reporting. The estimate would further increase by about 12% by increasing the estimate of how long it takes for HIV to develop into AIDS by one year.

Health aspects, AIDS (Disease), Caribbean Islands

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Model of the impact of HIV infection on the size of future hemophilia and carrier birth cohorts

Article Abstract:

HIV infection in hemophiliacs should cause a significant drop in the number of hemophiliacs in the near term, but not in the long term. About half of the 20,000 hemophiliacs in the US contracted HIV from clotting factor concentrates before HIV blood testing began. More than 20% now have AIDS. Researchers used mathematical models to estimate the impact of AIDS on the hemophiliac population. Between 1980 and 2179, HIV infection will reduce the birth of carriers by 2.63% and the birth of hemophiliacs by 1.79%. By the year 2179, the population of hemophiliacs will be essentially the same as it would have been in the absence of HIV.

Models, Hemophilia, Population forecasting

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