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An empirical comparison of new product trial forecasting models

Article Abstract:

An evaluation of the different models forecasting trial sales of new products reveals that simple models allows for significantly better forecasts than more complex specifications when dealing with consumer packaged goods. Also, models that explicitly accomodate heterogeneity in purchasing rates across consumers tend to offer better forecasts than those that do not and that maximum likelihood estimation appears to provide more accurate and stable predictions than non-linear least squares.

Author: Fader, Peter S., Hardie, Bruce G.S., Wisniewski, Michael
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1998
Models, Marketing, Consumer behavior

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Parameter variation and new product diffusion

Article Abstract:

An analysis of parameter variation in new product diffusion models reveals that stochastic parameter specifications can be easily used to produce substantially better fits. Moreover, the study also reveals that stochastic parameter specifications are useful in the case of weak priors on the likely pattern of variation and that it may be used to specify the exact form of variation.

Author: Putsis, William P. Jr.
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1998
Product management, Marketing management

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Subjects list: Analysis, Econometrics, Business models
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