Forecasting Accounting Data: A Multiple Time-Series Analysis

Article Abstract:

The relative forecasting worth of multivariate time series (MTS) analysis is considered using one hundred monthly observations for three accounting series as supplied by the manufacturing branch of a huge corporation. Research on the stochastic properties of accounting data has proliferated due to uniform time period studies of data which generated autocorrelation, cross- correlation trends and seasonality. Statistical data on MTS is furnished. The dynamics of accounting of MTS to a cost accounting data set is made. MTS model building necessitates diagnostic checking for mistakes in specifications. MTS is based on a cross- correlation structure of time series as a stable point. When structures alter, post sample forecasting accuracy can decline. Production graphs and data tables are included.

Product information, Multivariate analysis, Time-series analysis, Time series analysis

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On the use of dispersion measures from NAPM surveys in business cycle forecasting

Article Abstract:

An analysis of qualitative survey data on changes in production, inventory, new order and employment collected monthly by the National Assn of Purchasing Managers from 1948 to 1990 is presented. The probability method was applied to generate time-series estimates of cross-section variabilities across companies. Dispersion measures from qualitative surveys were found to have important potential for business cycle forecasting and for the calculation of turning-point probabilities.

Purchasing, Surveys, Inventory control

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Forecasting marginal costs of a multiple-output production technology

Article Abstract:

A comparison of two different forecasting components, the Oil Marketing Module (OMM) and the Oil Trade Model (OTM), found that OMM forecasts oil supply prices with the same effectiveness as OTM in a far shorter time. Data obtained via OTM was used to estimate OMM's performance. Both programs were run on a 386/25 PC: OTM occupied 1.4M and solved in 10 minutes; OMM occupied 74K and solved in 3-4 seconds. Results of the tests are given.

Petroleum refining, Models, Case studies, Petroleum refineries, Direct costing

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