Forecasting US home sales using BVAR models and survey data on households' buying attitudes for homes

Article Abstract:

Bayesian vector autoregression was employed to gauge the usefulness of survey data on household's attitudes towards house buying in estimating US home sales. The study revealed that the inclusion of survey data in a model that included price, mortgage rate, real personal disposable income and unemployment rate resulted in only a slight improvement of the results. This was highlighted in a comparison of the results generated by a model that incorporates survey data and a model that excludes survey data.

Research, Regression analysis, Autoregression (Statistics), Prediction theory

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Forecasting cointegrated series with BVAR models

Article Abstract:

Issues concerning the use of Bayesian vector autoregression in forecasting models are discussed. By using informative priors for factor loadings it is possible to more accurately forecast cointegrated variables.

Economic Statistics & Research, Economic conditions

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Performance evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index using lead profiles and BVAR models

Article Abstract:

The forecasting methodologies used for Connecticut Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes are evaluated by Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models.

Employment, Jobs & Employment, Measurement

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