Intrinsic bubbles revisited: evidence from nonlinear cointegration and forecasting

Article Abstract:

Froot and Obstfeld developed the intrinsic bubble model of stock prices. The study shows the nonlinear link between stock prices and dividends for the U.S. stock market data from 1871 to 1996. It also establishes the superiority of the intrinsic bubbles model over random walk and the rational bubbles models.

Dividends, Dividend Policy, Analysis, Stock prices, Company dividends

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Forecasting treasury's balance at the Fed

Article Abstract:

The Board of Governors at Federal Reserve Bank of New York as a daily operating procedure forecast the daily Treasury balance. The paper evaluates the accuracy of the above forecasts.

Management dynamics, Management, Evaluation, Economic forecasting, Company business management, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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Non-linear forecasts of stock returns

Article Abstract:

The value of the Markov regime switching model to predict US stock returns is discussed.

Forecasts, trends, outlooks, Models, Forecasts and trends, Market trend/market analysis, Return on investment, Investment analysis, Securities analysis, Rate of return, Present value

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