Modelling multivariate cointegrated systems: insights from non-linear dynamics

Article Abstract:

Litterman's Bayesian autoregression (BVAR) model was subjected to Johansen's test for cointegration to derive a vector error correction (VECM) and Bayesian error correction (BECM) variants of the model. Subsequently, a test for independence was used to determine whether the BVAR, BECM and VECM models generate 'independent and identically distributed errors' of their estimated equations. The results verified the validity of the Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman test for analyzing time-series prediction models.

Models, Evaluation, Bayesian statistical decision theory, Bayesian analysis, Mathematical models, Multivariate analysis, Nonlinear theories, Autoregression (Statistics), Prediction theory

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Modeling and forecasting municipal solid waste generation in the US energy supply

Article Abstract:

The municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in the US energy supply is modelled and forecasted using statistical and economic methods. The waste-to-energy (WTE) sector is first examined within the MSW and energy industries. An econometric model is then developed to help public policy makers understand the link between MSW and WTE. The model's prediction of MSW generation by year 2000 is higher than that projected by the US Environmental Protection Agency.

Power resources, Cities and towns, Waste management, Industrial wastes, Waste-derived fuels, Waste products as fuel

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