Predicting nominal variable relationships with multiple response

Article Abstract:

A method of evaluating the predictive association between nominal variables containing multiple responses is proposed. The Lambda-L and Lambda-M indices, which offer a quantitative index of predictive relationships, are introduced. The approach shows the possibility of quantifying predictions with one nominal variable of another nominal variable when one or both have multiple responses.

Analysis, Multivalued logic, Many-valued logic

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Judging the probability that the next point in an observed time-series will be below, or above, a given value

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted on directional probability forecasts. In such forecasts, persons estimate the probability of data being in a particular direction relative to a specified reference value. A series of experiments showed the existence of a hypoprecision bias which could lead to bad judgments.

Business forecasting

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