Quarterly forecasts of the Italian business cycle by means of monthly economic indicators

Article Abstract:

Italian economists have long relied on the industrial production index as their main measure for economic activity. This is borne of an orientation that favors structural macroeconomic modeling over business cycle analysis. However, the availability of regular figures for prices, supply and demand, employment and other economic variables makes the latter method a viable and practical alternative. A business cycle model that predicts indicators data one period ahead of national accounts data is developed.

Italy, Usage, Economic aspects, Economic indicators

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Fixed versus time-varying transfer functions for modelling business cycles

Article Abstract:

Thetraditional transfer function approach is compared to a recursive estimation procedure that allows the model to change over time in order to pinpoint and estimate transfer functions models relating leading indicators to the Swedish index of industrial production. Results of the comparison show that the recursive method is useful. It was also found that estimates of the model parameters indeed change over time.

Analysis, Recursive functions, Transfer functions

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Business cycle forecasting

Article Abstract:

Some of the methodological problems involved in business cycle forecasting are introduced. Business cycle forecasting is a crucial element of the short aswell as the medium-term economic planning process, which must often incorporatejudgments about future structural changes in economic systems. Some remarks on structural variability aspects relative to business forecasting are provided.

Management, Business forecasting

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