World price variability versus protectionism in agriculture: a causality analysis

Article Abstract:

The causal relationship between protectionism in agriculture and unanticipated global price variability is studied. Results of non-parametric and parametric causality tests show that governments intervene differently in agriculture across countries and sectors. Protectionism either has a positive or insignificant effect on world price variability, contrary to recently-suggested theoretical developments. The non-parametric stance can be used to show weak causal relations.

Economic aspects, International aspects, Agriculture, Agricultural economics, Free trade, Agricultural prices

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Trading mechanisms and price volatility: spot versus futures

Article Abstract:

An analysis of spot and futures prices is presented. Natural and temporal estimators are applied to evaluate the volatility of both market price types by using data from the Major Market Index and its futures prices. It is shown that daytime U-shaped volatility patterns are not necessarily generated by trading variables. In addition, substitution of a temporal estimator for it natural counterpart makes the U-shaped patterns disappear.

Spot market

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Testing for Granger's full causality

Article Abstract:

The presence of a complete causal relationship between two variables is tested by projecting distributions using univariate and bivariate representations for one variable. The test is applied to live and slaughter cattle futures markets. Results suggest that cattle futures prices fully cause cash prices.

Testing, Cattle, Futures, Causation, Causation (Philosophy)

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