Accidents and decision making under uncertainty: a comparison of four models

Article Abstract:

Heinrich's (1931) representation of the causes of industrial accidents can be a pattern for assessing and evaluating industrial safety problems and accidents as a signal detection task. In situations where the decision maker's feedback is influenced by personal experience, the 6 behavioral trends are more likely to affect task performance. A safety program that awards positive feedback such as commendations, results in a positive safety behavior. On the other hand, penalty for errors or unsafe behaviors should be meted out consistently and regularly to achieve the desired learning behavior.

Models, Workplace accidents, Human behavior

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The role of mental simulation in judgments of likelihood

Article Abstract:

Causal scenarios are simulated through two sub-processes, a scenario-evaluation process and a scenario generation process, followed by a third process called the leading contender process. Through two experiments, it can be supported that single-path reasoning results in higher likelihood estimates for the focal causal scenario. In addition, experiment participants seemed to begin with a set of causal scenarios, only to later reject those that seemed unlikely. Third, in making decisions, participants used both single- and multiple-path strategies.

Simulation methods, Simulation, Causation, Causation (Philosophy), Judgments, Judgments (Law), Similarity judgment

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A comparison of verbal and numerical judgments in the analytic hierarchy process

Article Abstract:

An analysis of numerical interpretations of verbal judgments reveals that verbal analyses tend to be overestimated when converted to numerical values which make verbal expressions superior to numerical ones. Verbal expressions tend to be easier to communicate and thus preferable over numerical expressions when accuracy is not of highest importance. Moreover, conversion from verbal to numerical values yield small discrepancies that can easily be disregarded.

Psychology & Psychiatry, Psychological aspects, Research, Decision-making, Decision making, Evaluation, Numerical analysis, Verbal ability, Psychology, Applied, Applied psychology

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